After the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of migrants flowing into Australia increased to “unbelievable levels”, says immigration expert Abul Rizvi.
Numbers had fallen sharply during the pandemic years as lockdown measures halted international travel. By March 2021, quarterly migrant arrivals had dropped to a fifth of pre-pandemic levels in Australia.
As things returned to normal, that trend reversed.
Rizvi, a former deputy secretary at the Department of Immigration, says no one was expecting net overseas migration (NOM) — which also factors in migrant departures — to reach a record annual high of almost 550,000 people as it did in 2023.
Almost three years later, Australia is still adjusting to that influx, and politicians across the ideological divide are now fixated on setting a new figure.
The recent debate over Australia’s NOM has been dominated by One Nation, which is calling for substantial cuts to immigration.
But research shows that opposition to immigration is often concentrated in areas with the fewest migrants.
Experts say these areas could also be among the worst hit by wide-ranging cuts, such as those proposed by One Nation.
Australia’s temporary migration challenge
Temporary migrants have historically been a driver of population growth in Australia. Typically, more migrants arrive each year than those who leave, increasing the overall population over time.
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has accused Labor of using migration to prop up headline economic numbers, saying in a media release: “Australians pay the price through lower wages, higher rents, unaffordable homes and stretched services.”
To address these issues, Hanson says the number of migrants should be reduced, insisting that “international student numbers must be slashed”. She has also called for the skilled migration program to be more targeted, and immigration from countries on the ‘Do Not Travel’ list to be halted.
The latest Department of Home Affairs figures show 2.9 million temporary visa holders were living in Australia on 31 July 2026.
New Zealand citizens can access a special temporary visa (subclass 444) that allows them to remain in Australia indefinitely. This has been available for decades but a direct pathway for citizenship was also created in 2023. Source: SBS News
The largest single group was New Zealanders holding ‘special category visas’, which accounted for 20 per cent (736,509) of temporary visa holders.
Temporary visa holders, who also include tourists or those undertaking short-term work or study, are not considered migrants by the ABS unless they are in the country for longer than a year.
Global migration expert and associate professor at the University of Sydney, Anna Boucher, says some temporary visa holders are still in Australia due to decisions made by former governments, including extensions granted after the pandemic by the Coalition to aid economic recovery and bridge skill shortages.
“These migration legacies can last a long time,” Boucher says.
Who is considered a migrant?
To count migrant arrivals, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) looks at a person’s “usual residence”, usingcriteria such as whether they have lived in the country for 12 months or more over the 16-month period after arriving.
The latest ABS overseas migration data shows 568,400 migrants arrived in Australia in financial year 2024/25, and 262,800 left. These figures are used to calculate NOM, which was 305,600.
The ABS also releases NOM figures for calendar years. In 2024, NOM was 340,800, falling to 301,100 in 2025.
This is substantially lower than the peak in 2023, when 547,300 people entered the country, but still slightly higher than yearly figures before the pandemic.
Net overseas migration (NOM) looks at how many longer-term migrants are arriving in Australia each year. Source: SBS News
Data shows migrants on temporary visas made up 70 per cent of NOM in 2024/25.
Net overseas migration includes Australian citizens returning after living overseas for an extended period (although more Australians left in 2024/25 than returned), as well as New Zealanders, and those on temporary and permanent visas. Source: SBS News
Who are Australia’s temporary migrants?
Bringing down the number of temporary migrants would involve reducing the number of temporary visas issued each year.
Hanson has said she would target international students and temporary graduate visa holders in an effort to cut NOM to 130,000. In 2024/25, students made up 43 per cent of temporary migrant arrivals.
Temporary migrants make up a large percentage of net overseas migration numbers. They include students, skilled workers and backpackers as well as ‘visitors’ who originally entered Australia on a tourist or other short-term visa, but extended their stay, often for work or study purposes. Source: SBS News
But Rizvi says a massive cut to student visas would have adverse effects on universities and could jeopardise the jobs of 50,000 Australians working in the international education sector.
He points out almost half of Sydney University’s revenue comes from tuition fees paid by international students.
The consequences would be severe and I don’t think [Hanson] has thought about those consequences.
Rizvi says it’s easier to make small cuts to many visa categories than to make big cuts to one or two, as the “negative consequences become quite extreme”.
But One Nation’s ambitious target to bring NOM down to 130,000 would require a dramatic cut of 175,700 people per year, based on 2024/25 figures.
This could not be achieved even if all 156,700 temporary migrants on student visas each year were cut.
Labor is aiming for a more modest reduction, bringing NOM down to 225,000 within two years, according to its budget projections for 2027/28.
The Coalition says it expects NOM to be “substantially below 200,000” under its policy to cap numbers based on housing supply.
Will cuts make life better?
One reason often cited for cutting immigration is to improve housing affordability.
Boucher says reducing immigration could potentially improve rental affordability, but the impact would mostly be felt in parts of the major capital cities, particularly if cuts target international students.
Almost all students on a temporary visa live in a capital city (around 90 per cent), according to the latest Census data from 2021.
Even in the major cities, the impact on housing demand would likely be marginal, Rizvi says.
[For] people in Sydney, it would make a minimal difference in terms of their financial situation.
Boucher points out that property prices are driven by a range of factors, including the tax system and interest rate rises. Additionally, because migrant labour contributes to the construction of housing, cutting NOM could have other unintended consequences for the housing market, making the overall impact “hard to predict”.
Other potential benefits, such as reduced traffic congestion, are also unlikely to be very noticeable, says Rizvi.
Four out of five temporary residents lived in a capital city, and around half lived in Sydney and Melbourne, according to the 2021 Census. Source: SBS News
On the flip side, the negative impacts of reducing NOM could include driving up prices for delivery services and food, and disruption to healthcare services.
Grattan Institute analysis of 2016 Census data found the hospitality industry had the largest share of migrant workers, with 40 per cent born overseas. Migrants made up almost half of all chefs and cooks in Australia.
It also found the healthcare and social assistance sector relies heavily on migrants, with around 37 per cent of these workers born overseas. Permanent migrants made up around one quarter of all registered nurses in the sector. They also work as aged and disabled carers, child carers and nursing support staff.
What about regional and rural areas?
Grattan’s analysis found that mining areas, such as the Pilbara in remote Western Australia, are more likely to rely on migrant workers, and some agricultural areas have higher shares of working holiday makers. The sunny climate of the Gold Coast is attractive to many New Zealanders.
According to the 2021 Census, around 20 per cent of working holiday makers in Australia live in regional or rural Queensland.
